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It’s your job to crunch the numbers and know what’s valuable and what can be ignored. In this article we’re going to try and show you the type of data you need to try and hunt down and hopefully show you how to approach thinking about analysing any tennis betting opportunity.

What are you looking for?

1. The Draw

If you’re looking to make an outright bet on a tournament, make sure you check the draw first. Look at who your pick will have to face to make it through to the final. How have they fared against their probable opponents in the past? The chances are you’ll have to play one of the top seeds to win but a bet that involves your player taking on Nadal, Murray and Djokovic from the quarter-finals is probably not going to pay off.

2. The Form

Form is critical. Before placing a match bet you should be looking to see how your pick has been performing across all tournaments, but especially on the surface the upcoming game is playing on. Remember that some players are surface specialists, despite speeds converging across all courts in recent years. Certain players might underperform on clay but come alive when the tour moves onto the grass.

You can break this down further into form at Grand Slams and other tournaments. The more prestigious the tournament, the better the indicator of form. Bigger players might be using smaller tournaments, where they’re getting a hefty appearance fee, as a warm-up and form might not be as indicative of where their game is.
The difference between Grand Slams and other ranking tournaments is even more pronounced on the men’s tour, where matches are the best-of-five sets. Fitness and conditioning is even more important here and matches tend to go to form more, with less variance. It’s extremely hard to take three sets from the world’s best players.

3. Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-heads are important but you need to put these into context. Recent encounters on the same surface are much more valuable than historic matches played on different courts. And there are lots of other more subtle stats that you should look to before you bet. Some players handle big servers better than others. Some players don’t perform well against players with a high first-server return percentage. You can even check how your player gets on against left-handed opponents. Try and be as thorough as possible when you’re looking at match-ups. You’re not necessarily looking for the winner, you’re looking for value and every pertinent stat could help you find it.

4. Fitness First

Conditioning is key, especially in best-of-five matches. Today’s players might be incredibly fit but even the best will struggle to maintain top form if they’ve been involved in an epic the day before. Some players are also more prone to retiring in smaller events if they’re nursing an injury. Others will fight their way to the end, like Roger Federer or Sam Querrey. Neither of these two stars have ever pulled out of a match hurt.

Retirements are much less common in Grand Slams but injuries and fitness can have a dramatic impact, as seen in the huge upset at Wimbledon when Novak Djokovic crashed out to Sam Querrey (from a starting price of 1.01). If you’d spotted the flaws in Djokovic’s game – and the clues were there – there was huge value in that market.

5. Mind Games

Tennis is a brutal psychological game and mental focus can play a huge part. Some players let their minds wander during matches or blow up, and the resulting swing can be massive. It doesn’t take many dropped points in tennis for the score to change dramatically. There is no data point for “mind wanders” but some careful analysis of game trends by player means you can begin to spot players who tend to this type of short-term blow-up.

6. Don’t Blame the Weatherman

The weather is a hugely underrated factor. Rain stops play but wind doesn’t and certain players handle it better than others. Andy Murray can hold his game together in windy conditions. Others, like Tomáš Berdych (who has a high toss), struggle. Federer loves playing indoors without a whisper of wind and if the roof comes on at Wimbledon his price is likely to contract.

Data Resources

This is just the start of your journey into tennis betting analysis, but continue it at one of the sites below. You can get detailed stats on almost everything from these three sites.

1.www.atpworldtour.com

The official site of the men’s tour has a wealth of stats and it’s incredibly easy to find what you’re looking for. Who are the best servers? On a particular surface? Who are the best returners? Which players cope well under pressure and who can convert and save the most breakpoints? You might be surprised at what you find.

2. www.tennisexplorer.com

An easy-to-navigate and exhaustive site that has stats for the ATP, WTA and lower level tournaments, with one-line information on matches – historic and upcoming – that includes pre-match betting prices.

3. www.tennisabstract.com

Might not be as user-friendly as the other two sites but it lets you dig down into detailed stats really quickly using the player search and filters on the left. Want to know how Roger Federer gets on against left-handed players? Or players over 6’2? This is the site.